Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% in August. The predicted month-on-month momentum for this category is -0.5%. The cumulative change by December is anticipated to reach 2.7%. Volatility over the three-month forecast period was 0.5, indicating a year-on-year change of -0.7%. These figures pertain specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations.
Croatia shows a notable insensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts, as indicated by a 25% year-over-year decrease in the normalized price-sensitivity score and a 56% shift in the volatility of that score, suggesting a slight decrease in variability. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the year-over-year drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Croatia may have a limited impact on demand.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights