The retail sector in Cyprus is expected to grow by 0.8% in August, with a modest month-on-month increase of 0.1%. By December, sales are anticipated to rise by an additional 2.5%, indicating a positive trend in consumer activity. The three-month forecast volatility is 0.6, reflecting a decrease of 0.59 from the previous year, suggesting a more stable market environment. These projections are based on the Eurostat consumer retail index data, providing a reliable basis for the forecast. Overall, the outlook for the retail sector in Cyprus appears cautiously optimistic with steady growth expected through the end of the year.
The forecast for the retail sector from June 2025 to December 2025 indicates a 95% probability of increased demand. The distribution curve illustrates forecast uncertainty, with the peak representing the most likely demand levels and the tails indicating less probable outcomes. This suggests a strong confidence in growth, with some variability in the extent of the increase.
Cyprus shows a slight insensitivity to price compared to its European counterparts, as evidenced by a 28% year-over-year increase in the normalized price-sensitivity score and a 38% decrease in the volatility of that score. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the year-over-year drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Cyprus may have a relatively stable impact on demand.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights