Finland August 2025: Retail Sector Sales Expected to Increase by 1.7%

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Outlook Overview

Retail sales are expected to increase by 1.7% in August, with a predicted month-on-month growth of 0.6%. By December, the total change is anticipated to be 2.7%. Volatility over the three-month forecast period was noted at 0.8, indicating a year-on-year change of 0.17. These statistics specifically relate to the consumer retail sector as reported by Eurostat.

Forecast Plot

Forecast Distribution

Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.

Forecast Distribution

Price Elasticity

Over the past year in Finland, the normalized elasticity score experienced a year-over-year change of -7%, indicating a slight decrease in market sensitivity. Concurrently, the year-over-year volatility of this score increased by 37%, suggesting a slight decrease in volatility. These figures, derived from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls and a statistically significant price-effect (p-value < 0.01), suggest that the Finnish market is currently slightly sensitive compared to its peers. For businesses, this implies a need for cautious pricing and promotional strategies to account for the reduced sensitivity and altered volatility dynamics.

Price Elasticity Plot

Method: Price Elasticity Insights