Retail sales are projected to grow by 0.4% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 0.5%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 2.4%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 0.3, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1.6. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
Over the past year in France, the normalized elasticity score remained unchanged year-over-year, indicating a stable sensitivity to price changes. However, the year-over-year volatility of this score increased by 87%, suggesting greater fluctuations in sensitivity over time. These figures were obtained using a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, where the price-effect p-value was less than 0.01, confirming statistical significance. The market's current slight sensitivity relative to peers implies that businesses should exercise caution in pricing or promotional planning, as consumer response may vary unpredictably.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights