The retail sector in Greece is expected to see a slight contraction of 0.4% in August. Despite this decrease, the month-on-month momentum is anticipated to be positive at 0.5%. Looking ahead, sales are expected to increase by 1.3% by November. The sector's three-month forecast volatility stands at 0.3, which is a significant reduction of 2.01 from the previous year. These projections are derived from the Eurostat consumer retail index data.
Between May 2025 and November 2025, there is a 63% probability that demand in the overall retail sector will decline. The central peak of the forecast distribution indicates the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails represent less probable variations in demand.
In the past year in Greece, the normalized elasticity score rose by 12% year-over-year, indicating a slight increase in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score decreased by 29%, reflecting a slight reduction in market fluctuations. These figures are derived from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, showing a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The current high market sensitivity compared to peers suggests that businesses should carefully consider price adjustments and promotional strategies to optimize market response.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights