Retail sales are projected to grow by 0.1% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 0%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 1.7%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 0, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.56. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution suggests a 90% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve indicates the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails represent less probable variations.
Hungary shows a slightly higher sensitivity to price changes compared to other European countries. The year-over-year normalized price-sensitivity score decreased by 16%, while the volatility of this score increased by 189%, indicating a slight increase in the instability of price elasticity. These metrics are derived from rolling twelve-month windows and are estimated using a hierarchical mixed-effects model that aggregates data across various geographies, resulting in a statistically significant overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Hungary should consider increased volatility in consumer response to price changes.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights