Retail sales are expected to increase by 1.2% in August, with a predicted month-on-month growth of 0.8% in the consumer retail category. The total change by December is anticipated to be 3.6%. Volatility over the three-month forecast period is measured at 0.7, indicating a year-on-year change of -0.1. These figures specifically pertain to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
The forecast for the retail sector from June 2025 to December 2025 indicates a 95% probability of increased demand. The distribution curve illustrates forecast uncertainty, with the peak representing the most likely demand values and the tails indicating less probable outcomes.
Ireland shows a slight sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts. The year-over-year normalized price-sensitivity score increased by 24%, while the volatility of this score decreased by 35%, indicating a slight increase in price elasticity and a decrease in its variability. These metrics are derived from rolling twelve-month windows and are calculated using a hierarchical mixed-effects model that aggregates data across different regions, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Ireland should be carefully managed to maintain demand stability.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights