Retail sales are projected to grow by 0.3% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 0.6%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 1.4%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 0.3, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.43. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates an 87% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
Latvia shows a slight sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts. The year-over-year normalized price-sensitivity score increased by 7%, while the volatility of this score decreased by 43%, indicating a slight stabilization in price elasticity. These metrics are derived from rolling twelve-month windows and are calculated using a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Latvia should be carefully calibrated to maintain demand stability.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights