The retail sector in Lithuania is expected to see a slight growth of 0.3% in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. By December, sales are predicted to rise by another 2.2%, showing a gradual upward trend in the sector. The three-month forecast volatility is at 0.2, which is a decrease of 0.42 from the previous year, indicating a more stable market environment. These projections are based on the Eurostat consumer retail index data, offering a data-driven perspective for the sector.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 91% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
Over the past year in Lithuania, the normalized elasticity score experienced a year-over-year decrease of 21%, while the year-over-year volatility of that score increased by 295%. This indicates a slight decrease in market sensitivity and a slight increase in volatility, suggesting that the market is currently less sensitive compared to its peers. These figures are based on a multilevel model incorporating macroeconomic controls, with a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The business implication of these results is that companies should exercise caution in pricing or promotional planning, as the market's reduced sensitivity may limit the effectiveness of price changes.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights