Malta August 2025: Retail sector sales expected to increase by 2.3%

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Outlook Overview

Retail sales are projected to grow by 2.3% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 1.2%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 5.5%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 1.4, reflecting a year-on-year change of 0.16. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.

Forecast Plot

Forecast Distribution

Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations.

Forecast Distribution

Price Elasticity

Malta shows a slightly lower sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts. Over the past year, the normalized price-sensitivity score increased by 28%, indicating a significant rise, while the year-over-year volatility of this score decreased by 15%, suggesting a slight stabilization. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the annual drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Malta can be adjusted with a relatively lower impact on demand compared to other European markets.

Price Elasticity Plot

Method: Price Elasticity Insights