The retail sector in Montenegro is expected to grow by 1.8% in August, with a month-on-month momentum of 1.3%. By December, sales are anticipated to increase by an additional 4.5%. The three-month forecast volatility in the sector is 1.2, reflecting a decrease of 0.37 from the previous year. These projections are based on the Eurostat consumer retail index data, indicating a stable yet modest growth trajectory for the sector.
The forecast for the retail sector from June 2025 to December 2025 indicates a 95% probability of increased demand. The distribution curve illustrates forecast uncertainty, with the peak representing the most likely demand values and the tails indicating less probable scenarios.
Over the past year in Montenegro, the normalized elasticity score experienced a year-over-year increase of 52%, indicating a significant rise in market sensitivity. Concurrently, the year-over-year volatility of this score decreased by 14%, suggesting a slight reduction in market fluctuations. These figures are based on a multilevel model incorporating macroeconomic controls, with a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The current market conditions, characterized by high insensitivity relative to peers, suggest that businesses should consider maintaining stable pricing strategies while focusing on targeted promotions to capitalize on the increased sensitivity.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights