Retail sales are expected to stay unchanged in August, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The predicted month-on-month momentum for the consumer retail category is -1.3%. By December, the cumulative change is anticipated to reach 20.6%. The volatility over the three-month forecast period is 0.9, indicating a year-on-year change of 0.17. These figures specifically relate to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 91% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
North Macedonia shows a slight sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts, with a year-over-year (YoY) normalized price-sensitivity score decreasing by 9%, while the YoY volatility of this score increased by 179%. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. Practically, this suggests that pricing strategies in North Macedonia should account for moderate fluctuations in demand sensitivity.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights