The retail sector in Norway is expected to see a modest growth of 0.4% in August. The month-on-month momentum for this period is anticipated to be 0.2%, indicating a steady but slow increase in retail activity. By December, sales are expected to rise by an additional 0.7%, suggesting a gradual upward trend in consumer spending. The three-month forecast volatility in the sector stands at 0.2, which is a decrease of 0.18 from the previous year, reflecting a more stable market environment. These projections are derived from the Eurostat consumer retail index data.
The forecast for the retail sector from June 2025 to December 2025 indicates a 68% probability of increased demand. The distribution curve illustrates forecast uncertainty, with the peak representing the most likely demand outcomes and the tails indicating less probable scenarios.
Over the past year in Norway, the normalized elasticity score experienced a year-over-year change of -16%, indicating a slight decrease in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score increased by 36%, suggesting a slight decrease in volatility. These figures were obtained using a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, where the price-effect p-value was less than 0.01, confirming statistical significance. The market remains slightly sensitive compared to peers. For businesses, these results imply that pricing and promotional strategies should be adjusted to account for the reduced sensitivity and increased stability in consumer response.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights