The retail sector in Poland is expected to grow by 0.7% in August, with a month-on-month momentum of 0.4%. By December, sales are anticipated to increase by an additional 1.2%. The sector's three-month forecast volatility is 0.4, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 from the previous year. These projections are based on the Eurostat consumer retail index data, indicating a moderate yet steady growth trajectory for the retail market in Poland.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution suggests a 71% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve indicates the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails represent less probable variations in demand.
Poland shows a slightly higher sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts. The year-over-year normalized price-sensitivity score increased by 43%, indicating a significant rise, while the volatility of this score decreased by 36%, suggesting a slight reduction in variability. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the year-over-year drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This heightened price sensitivity implies that pricing strategies in Poland should be carefully managed to maintain demand stability.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights