Retail sales are projected to grow by 0.6% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 0.5%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 2.0%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 0.4, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.13. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
The forecast for the period between June 2025 and December 2025 indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The distribution curve highlights the central peak as the most likely outcome, with the wider tails representing less probable variations in demand.
Portugal shows a slight sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts. The year-over-year normalized price-sensitivity score decreased by 1%, while the volatility of this score decreased by 28%, indicating a slight reduction in both the drift and stability of price elasticity. These metrics are derived from a hierarchical mixed-effects model that aggregates data across various geographies, resulting in a significant overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Portugal should be carefully calibrated to maintain demand stability.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights