Retail sales are projected to grow by 1.8% in August. The forecasted month-on-month momentum for this category is 1.1%. The cumulative change by December is expected to reach 4.4%. Volatility across the three-month forecast horizon was 1.1, reflecting a year-on-year change of 0.06. The data refer specifically to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations.
Over the past year in Romania, the normalized elasticity score decreased by 7% year-over-year, while the volatility of this score increased by 445% year-over-year. This indicates a slight reduction in market sensitivity and a significant rise in volatility, suggesting that the market is currently highly insensitive compared to its peers. These figures are based on a multilevel model incorporating macroeconomic controls, with a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The business implication of these results is that companies should exercise caution in adjusting prices or planning promotions, as the market's reduced sensitivity and increased volatility may lead to unpredictable outcomes.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights