The retail sector in Slovakia is expected to grow by 1.4% in August, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending. The month-on-month momentum is anticipated to be 0.9%, suggesting steady progress in retail activities. By December, sales are expected to increase by an additional 2.1%, reflecting continued expansion in the sector. The three-month forecast volatility stands at 0.7, which is a decrease of 0.22 from the previous year, indicating a more stable market environment. These projections are derived from the Eurostat consumer retail index data, providing a reliable basis for the forecast.
The forecast for the retail sector from June 2025 to December 2025 indicates a 71% probability of a decline in demand. The distribution curve illustrates forecast uncertainty, with the peak representing the most likely demand levels and the tails indicating less probable scenarios.
Slovakia shows a slight insensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts, as indicated by a year-over-year (YoY) decrease of 20% in the normalized price-sensitivity score. At the same time, the YoY volatility of this score increased by 237%, indicating a slight rise in instability. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the drift and stability of price elasticity. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in a statistically significant overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Slovakia may require careful consideration to effectively manage demand.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights