The retail sector in Slovenia is expected to grow by 1.2% in August, indicating a positive trend. The month-on-month momentum for this period is anticipated to be 0.6%, suggesting steady progress. By December, retail sales are expected to increase slightly by an additional 0.1%, reflecting a modest upward trajectory. The three-month forecast volatility in the sector stands at 0.6, which is a decrease of 0.42 from the previous year, indicating reduced uncertainty. These projections are derived from the Eurostat consumer retail index data, providing a reliable basis for analysis.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 52% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
In the past year in Slovenia, the normalized elasticity score rose by 22% year-over-year, showing increased sensitivity to price changes. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score fell by 7%, indicating reduced fluctuations. These results, obtained from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, are statistically significant with a price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The market's current state of heightened sensitivity and reduced volatility suggests that businesses should adopt more dynamic pricing strategies and targeted promotions to take advantage of consumer responsiveness.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights