The retail sector in Sweden is expected to grow by 0.8% in August, but the month-on-month momentum shows a slight decline of 0.2% for the current period. Looking ahead to December, sales are anticipated to increase by an additional 2.2%. The three-month forecast volatility in the sector is 0.5, a decrease of 0.08 from the previous year. These projections are based on the Eurostat consumer retail index data.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations in demand.
During the past year in Sweden, the normalized elasticity score saw a year-over-year change of -1%, indicating a slight decrease in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score increased by 1069%, showing a significant rise in market unpredictability. These figures are derived from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, with the price-effect p-value being less than 0.01, indicating statistical significance. The business implication of these results suggests that companies should be cautious in pricing or promotional planning due to increased market volatility.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights