The household furniture and equipment retail sector in Italy is projected to experience a 1.1% decrease in sales in August. The month-on-month momentum for this period is anticipated to be -0.5%. However, by December, sales are expected to increase by 1.3%. The three-month forecast volatility for this sector stands at 0.5, which is an increase of 0.3 from the previous year. These projections are derived from Eurostat's household furniture and equipment retail index data.
Between June 2025 and December 2025, there is a 95% probability that demand for household furniture and equipment retail will decline. The central peak of the forecast distribution indicates the most likely outcomes, while the wider tails represent less probable variations in demand. This probability suggests that businesses should consider adjusting pricing strategies, inventory levels, and promotional efforts to mitigate the impact of reduced demand.
Italy shows a slight sensitivity to price changes compared to its European counterparts, as indicated by a year-over-year (YoY) change in the normalized price-sensitivity score of -75%, suggesting a slight increase in sensitivity, and a YoY volatility shift of -71%, indicating a slight decrease in volatility. These metrics, derived from rolling twelve-month windows, reflect the YoY drift and stability of price elasticity in the household furniture and equipment retail sector. The estimates are based on a hierarchical mixed-effects model that integrates data across various geographies, resulting in an overall price-effect *p*-value of less than 0.01. This suggests that pricing strategies in Italy should be carefully managed to maintain demand stability.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights