The household furniture and equipment retail sector in Portugal is expected to see a 0.8% increase in sales for August, maintaining the same month-on-month growth rate. By December, sales are anticipated to rise by an additional 3.2%. The three-month forecast volatility for this sector is 0.6, reflecting a decrease of 0.41 from the previous year. These projections are based on Eurostat's household furniture and equipment retail index data. The decline in forecast volatility indicates a more stable market environment compared to the previous year.
The forecast for the household furniture and equipment retail sector indicates a 91% probability of increased demand by December 2025. The distribution curve highlights the most likely demand outcomes at its peak, with the tails representing less probable scenarios. Businesses should leverage this forecast to optimize inventory and resource allocation while preparing contingency plans for less likely demand fluctuations.
In the past year in Portugal, the normalized elasticity score saw a year-over-year change of -75%, indicating a decrease in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score decreased by 70%, suggesting reduced fluctuations in sensitivity levels. These figures were obtained using a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, with a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The market's current state of slight insensitivity compared to peers implies that businesses may need to adjust their pricing or promotional strategies to account for reduced consumer responsiveness.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights