Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.6% in August. The predicted month-on-month momentum for this category is -0.1%. The cumulative change by December is anticipated to reach 2.7%. Volatility over the three-month forecast period was 0.4, indicating a year-on-year change of -1.28%. These figures specifically pertain to the sector as reported by Eurostat.
The forecast for the period between June 2025 and December 2025 indicates a 92% probability of increased demand in the overall retail sector. The distribution curve highlights the most likely outcomes at its central peak, with the wider tails representing less probable variations in demand.
In the past year in Austria, the normalized elasticity score saw a year-over-year change of 5%, showing a slight rise in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score dropped by 81%, indicating a decrease in market fluctuations. These numbers come from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, with a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The present market conditions suggest that businesses should think about keeping stable pricing strategies while carefully implementing promotional activities to take advantage of the increased sensitivity.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights