Italy August 2025: Retail Sector Sales Expected to Remain Stable

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Outlook Overview

Retail sales are expected to decrease by 0.2% in August. The predicted month-on-month momentum for this category is -1%. The cumulative change by December is anticipated to be 1.4%. Volatility over the three-month forecast period was 0.5, indicating a year-on-year change of 0.21. These figures specifically pertain to the sector as reported by Eurostat.

Forecast Plot

Forecast Distribution

Between June 2025 and December 2025, the forecast distribution indicates a 94% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The central peak of the distribution curve represents the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations.

Forecast Distribution

Price Elasticity

In the past year in Italy, the normalized elasticity score saw a 3% year-over-year change, showing a slight rise in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score dropped by 25%, indicating a decrease in market fluctuations. These numbers come from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls, showing a statistically significant price-effect p-value of less than 0.01. The present market conditions suggest that businesses should think about adopting more dynamic pricing strategies to take advantage of the increased sensitivity while managing the reduced volatility.

Price Elasticity Plot

Method: Price Elasticity Insights