Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.9% in August, with a predicted month-on-month growth of 6.5%. By December, the total change is anticipated to be 6.8%. The volatility over the three-month forecast period is measured at 4.2, indicating a year-on-year change of 4.01%. These statistics specifically relate to the consumer retail sector as reported by Eurostat.
The forecast for the period between June 2025 and December 2025 indicates a 95% probability of an increase in overall retail sector demand. The distribution curve's central peak highlights the most likely demand outcomes, while the wider tails account for less probable variations.
During the last year in Luxembourg, the normalized elasticity score saw a year-over-year change of -37%, indicating a significant reduction in market sensitivity. At the same time, the year-over-year volatility of this score changed by 40%, reflecting a slight decrease in volatility. These figures, derived from a multilevel model with macroeconomic controls and a statistically significant price-effect (p-value < 0.01), suggest that the market is currently highly insensitive compared to its peers. For businesses, this implies a need to reassess pricing and promotional strategies, as traditional price changes may have a diminished impact on consumer behavior.
Method: Price Elasticity Insights